Taishan period: night and 8.10 main trading recommendations

The rubber is more profitable and the band will rise.

Seeking the end: July heavy truck data exceeded expectations, Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory fell. According to the latest data of the first commercial vehicle network, China's heavy truck market is expected to sell 94,000 vehicles of various types in July, a significant increase of 89% compared with 49,700 vehicles in the same period last year. In the first seven months of this year, the heavy truck market has sold a total of 678,000 vehicles of various types, an increase of 74% year-on-year. Benefiting from strong demand, the firm advised Jiataishan on the WeChat public account: tskq88 Qingdao Free Trade Zone's natural rubber stocks turned head-down, inventory fell from the June high of 217,000 tons to 180,500 tons, a decline of about 17 %. Supply side: Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia will hold a 10%-15% meeting on September 15th, and the supply segment is expected to contract. In order to alleviate the problem of oversupply, since June, the rubber-producing countries in Southeast Asia have frequently released the signals of insured and limited production.

Rubber on Wednesday rose strongly to the Dayang line, fully confirming the author's suggestion of doing more rubber. In the comments yesterday, the author clearly indicated that the rubber band will also rise, and suggested that Wednesday continue to find a decisive and long-term, Wednesday The rise is a re-test of the author's accurate judgment. After the big rise on Wednesday, the rubber is expected to be repaired and repaired on Thursday, and the band is expected to continue to rise.

Copper, zinc and nickel will break through and will continue to rise

The market bulls have a strong atmosphere, and the copper price continues to have sufficient upward momentum. The copper price is 6500 US dollars higher, and the Shanghai copper jumps above 51,000 yuan, driving the domestic spot copper price to rise. After the recent continuous rise, the price of copper has accumulated a huge increase of nearly 5,000 yuan in the past month or so. The industry is worried that the short-term copper price will be hit by the profit-taking plate and the high-level callback. At present, the holders are actively shipping, but the copper manufacturers and traders The receipt of goods is cautious, and it is still mostly ordered. At the current high level, the copper market is intertwined. On the one hand, it is affected by environmental inspections and wastes. The smelter output and scrap copper supply are all reduced, which is good for copper prices, but it still needs to be guarded. The biggest threat of copper price will be It will be "the dollar index or bottoming out".

Operation suggestion: Copper, zinc and nickel continue to rise strongly on Wednesday, in line with the author's view of many colored plates, the current funds from the black system to the colored plate and complete the relay, copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum and other metals will continue to rise, night And after a small correction on Thursday, we continued to decisively buy more orders, and the rising market has not yet ended. The capital feast is still going on.

Thread iron ore is on schedule, which is in line with the author's thinking

The ex-factory price of the general billet in Tangshan fell by RMB 50/ton, and closed at RMB 3,700/ton. Steel billet prices are loose, steel prices are slightly adjusted, but steel supply is tight in the supply-side reform. Today, the spot steel market price fluctuates strongly. The spot transaction price in most markets in the country is higher than the previous one. Specifically, today's HRB400 Beijing 20mm line screw closed at 3,930 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton; Shenyang 20mm line screw closed at 3,930 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton; Taiyuan 12mm line screw closed at 4330 yuan / ton, up 70 Yuan/ton On the afternoon of August 7, Hunan Provincial Governor Xu Dazhe presided over the provincial government executive meeting, and guided the Jiataishan period WeChat public number: tskq88 pointed out that all departments at all levels in the province should increase their responsibility to implement Great discretion and punishment, increase government supervision, limit the production capacity of “District Steel” and dismantle equipment in a timely manner to prevent resurgence. Resolutely punish the law against the wind and commit serious punishments for weak supervision, and effectively prohibit the order. Resolutely complete the task of eliminating unsafe and backward production capacity in industries such as coal.

Threaded steel ore rose strongly on Wednesday, basically eating down on Tuesday. The author's comments suggest that the black system will rebound. At present, the thread iron mine is not over yet, and it is recommended to open at night and Thursday. After a small back, look for opportunities to continue to buy more than one operation, it is recommended that the high position short and multi-operations should be completed in a timely manner.

Plastic pp bottom can buy more than one

The index of API data released in the morning was 178, and the published value was -783.9. The data was sharply bullish for crude oil, but the price of crude oil was basically not much. After the API data unexpectedly recorded last week, this week's API data. If the market expects a decline and the decline far exceeds expectations, the US and the two oils will rise shortly after the data is released; but the increase in the gasoline storage accidents has slightly increased the oil price trend. In this respect, crude oil The rise is also stressful. The overnight EIA monthly report slightly lowered demand expectations and raised production expectations; although API crude oil inventories fell sharply, gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose during the peak summer demand period; and when EIA crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, API crude oil inventories increased. Therefore, the impact of the API crude oil inventories this week was greatly reduced; in addition, there was not much substantial progress in the OPEC and non-OPEC meetings on the previous day, saying that the discussion on August 21 also suggested that the past two days of talks were not optimistic. The market is lingering over OPEC's commitment to reduce production.

Operation suggestion: plastic and pp rushed down on Wednesday to meet the yin, in line with the author's suggestion of the high point of decline, plastic pp operation, it is recommended to open the bottom of the bottom after Thursday to find a machine to buy more than one, the overall chemical sector will also rise, follow the trend Participate in more than one thought process.

Soybean meal continues to rise, and more continues to profit

The Ministry of Agriculture will release the August supply and demand report this week. Analysts on average expected US soybean production in 2017 to be 4.203 billion bushels, compared with the US Department of Agriculture's July forecast of 4.26 billion bushels. Analysts expect US soybean ending stocks for 2017/18 to be 433 million bushels, compared with the US Department of Agriculture's July forecast of 460 million bushels. Analysts expect global soybean ending stocks for 2017/18 to be 92.3 million tons, compared with the firm's forecast for the WeChat public account: tskq88 The US Department of Agriculture's forecast last month was 93.5 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) weekly crop growth report showed that the US soybean growth rate was 60%, compared to 59% the previous week and 72% in the same period last year. In the week, the US soybean flowering rate was 90%, 82% in the previous week, and 90% in the same period last year, with a five-year average of 88%. In the week, the US soybean podping rate was 65%, 48% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year, with a five-year average of 52%.

Operation suggestion: Soybean meal continued to rise on Wednesday, the strength of the cockroach has not changed yet, and the disk is expected to continue to rise. Do not short the order.

Egg violence rises and will continue to rise

On August 09, the egg prices in the main producing areas were stable and weak, and Hebei and Liaoning fell back. The sales area in Beijing was obviously adjusted back, and Shanghai stabilized. The sales in the sales area increased, the retail price of the terminal rose, and the goods entered the adjustment stage. Commercial procurement began to be cautious, but the inventory in the production area was not much. It is expected that the short-term egg price correction will be limited, and there is still a possibility of increase in the later period. After a wave of egg prices, there was a small correction, but there was not much stock in the market. The demand for warming up in the two quarters and the start of the school season was mixed, and the market sentiment was more optimistic. Trade monitoring showed that traders received goods more easily, and the goods continued to slow down. The overall trade situation continued to deteriorate slightly from the previous day. The traders' inventory was low, which was not much changed from the previous day. Traders expected to turn bearish. The bearish expectations in North China and Central South are relatively strong.

Operation suggestion: Eggs rose sharply on Wednesday to report the big Yangxian line, which fully confirmed the author's view of seeing more eggs. The egg is now completely breaking through the upward trend, and the rapid pull-up is in progress. If it is operated on Thursday, it will continue to buy more operations. It is expected that the eggs will bottom out. After that, it continued to strengthen and close the sun.

The rise of palm oil and soybean oil continues to grow

Palm oil entered the production increase cycle, supply expectations may be further improved, and the expected increase in production in the future is strong on the trend of horse palm oil (5440, 94.00, 1.76%). At the same time, the stocks have bottomed out and will continue to rise. In addition, the FOB spread in the international market shows that the relative competitiveness of palm oil has increased, but it continues to be affected by the trend of soybean oil (6308, 90.00, 1.45%) in the international market. Under the trade market share, horse palm oil is difficult to be strong. Palm oil upside down at home and abroad improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm was restored. Although domestic inventory pressure is expected to gradually improve after mid-August. The growth of US beans is relatively normal. The weather forecast for mid-August shows that the growth of beneficial beans is not obvious. Weather city speculation cools down, but weather changes will still be the source of market volatility. Domestic soybeans have a large amount of Hong Kong arrivals, and under the unsatisfactory crushing profits, the country is gradually delaying the arrival of soybeans.

Operational recommendations: Soybean palm oil continued to rise strongly on Wednesday, fully confirming the author's view of oil and fat, soy oil palm oil is currently rising in good shape, the market will also hope to continue to rebound and high, the operation suggests that soybean oil palm oil opened slightly behind the opportunity Buying more than one, it is expected that soybean oil palm oil will also have a rebound high.

Asphalt methanol continues to do more dips

FOB US sea methanol price was raised from US$295.94/ton to US$300.96/ton, up US$5.02/ton; CFR China main port maintained US$1275/ton, price fluctuation was limited; FOB US Gulf spot price was raised from 251 Euro/ton to 269 ​​euros / ton, up 12 euros / ton; CFR Southeast Asia from 278 US dollars / ton back to 280 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton. Overall, the price of major international methanol in July was stable and small, and the center of gravity was slightly too high. Mainly due to the maintenance of important methanol equipment, the firm guidance of the Jiataishan period WeChat public number: tskq88 a few important traders into the market to fill the support. Southern Chemical Corp.'s July 2017 North American CP price was 110 cents per gallon ($365.86/tonne), up 2 cents/gallon from its North American contract price in July. Canadian methanol producer Methanex's August North American CP price (non-discounted contract price) was 113 cents/gal ($375.84/ton), which was the same as the July CP price.

Futures market: Asphalt methanol rose strongly on Wednesday, the chemical sector collective carnival, methanol performance is stronger than asphalt and led the rise as a leader, asphalt methanol night disk and Thursday operation, it is recommended to do more dips, it is recommended that the two open slightly Looking back and looking for a machine to buy more orders, the intraday rebound in the market, and continued to see more on Thursday.

Corn and starch return to strength and will continue to rise

August 09, external trend: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed up about 1.5% on Monday, due to technical buying and short covering, coupled with concerns about the expansion of dry weather in parts of the US crop belt. Domestically, with the tight supply of the near-preservation, the supply pressure is highlighted. In the downstream corn feed, the low season of consumption is highlighted, and the pig price remains weak. In terms of spot prices, the prices in the southern sales area are basically stable. In terms of deep processing, corn starch demand is slowly recovering, but the sales results are not satisfactory, and market transactions remain low. In terms of ports in the north and the south, the amount of Hong Kong's ports has decreased, and most of them are self-collected and grain-receiving. The price of the northern port has declined and the trade mentality has weakened. In addition, the southern new grain has started to be listed in a small amount, and the reserves in the 14 years have gradually increased, and the short-term corn price has been weak.

Operational recommendations: corn starch and corn rose strongly on Wednesday, and the egg-driven starch returned to strong strength. Both will be expected to continue to rise on Thursday. If the operation is small, it is recommended to open a small back to look for opportunities to buy more orders. .

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(Editor: Wang Xuebing HF074)