Short-term trading strategy of the euro against the US dollar on May 17

Huitong.com May 17th - Wednesday (May 17th) The euro against the US dollar was stimulated by multiple factors, soaring and repeatedly refreshing the high point in the past six months, the bullish morale is high, the operational risk is significantly increased, and the short-term concern is near the resistance at 1.1140. .

Note 1: This strategy is biased towards technical analysis. In terms of fundamentals, readers should also pay attention to the analysis articles of Huitong.com on market hotspots; admission points and positions need to be adjusted as appropriate; any time there will be multiple variables, this strategy is mainly It is a case where the probability is relatively large.

Note 2: Due to the website page update, the article does not support the internal language update. Other foreign exchange trading strategies are expected to be available online at 15:00-16:30.



★ May 17th market hot spot:

1. The fermentation situation of Trump's “Left Door”

Foreign media reported that before the US President Trump had leaked high-level secrets during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, although many parties denied it, the fermentation of the incident has warmed up, and Trump may even be impeached. In addition, the US CPI and other data were less than expected, which together caused the US dollar index to fall for five consecutive trading days, once refreshing the six-month low to 98.05, basically returning to the level before Trump won the election, which also helped the euro break through 1.1020. The resistance once refreshed the high level in the past six months to the vicinity of the 1.11 mark.

The New York Times said that Trump’s leaked content came from Israel.

Trump’s current attitude is still tough, and he says he has “absolute power” to share information about terrorists with Russian officials. The Democratic leader of the House said that Trump’s approach was ridiculous; the Kremlin clarified that the report on Trump’s disclosure of confidential information was “purely nonsense”.

The White House issued a statement saying that President Trump never asked former FBI director Komi to end any investigation, refuting the New York Times report that Komi said in a memo that Trump had asked him to end the investigation before the national security adviser Flynn.

If Trump’s “Leaking the Door” event is further fermented, it will continue to put pressure on the US dollar, which will benefit non-US currencies and gold.

However, the US industrial output in April increased by 1% from the previous month, the largest increase in more than three years. The US Nasdaq index hit another record high. It is expected that the US dollar will stabilize and rebound after the “leak door” incident.

2. The optimistic mood of the European economic outlook.

The overall economic growth of the euro zone in the first quarter was 0.5%, indicating that the recovery is on track, but the growth rate of member countries is different. The market expects the ECB to have more reason to call for caution. Investors need to pay attention to this expected change. It may form a certain drag on the rise of the euro. If the market continues to expect the European Central Bank to release a signal to tighten policy in June, the euro is expected to continue to rise.

3. EIA crude oil inventory weekly report and market further interpretation of the oil production country's production reduction period extended to the first quarter of 2018

The International Energy Agency's IEA said in its monthly report on Tuesday (May 16) that with the significant cuts in OPEC and its allies, the global oil market is returning to equilibrium, but it still needs to implement longer-term production limits to digest excess stocks. .

The API crude oil stocks released in the early morning of Wednesday unexpectedly increased by 882,000 barrels, while the market was originally expected to reduce 2.283 million barrels, which cast a shadow over the EIA crude oil inventory report released at night.

4. Information about the Brexit negotiations in the UK

★ Historical strategy profit and loss review: Sterling performed best, and the analysis of other varieties was basically correct, but the overall strategy was not as good as the previous one.

1. Spot gold: Accurately judged the market to continue to rebound slightly, but did not touch the conservative strategy of the empty entry point of 1,241 US dollars; the aggressive strategy of 1,237 US dollars near the empty single entry, the closing is basically flat.
2, spot silver: accurate judgment of the market continues to rebound, but did not touch the conservative strategy entry point 17.011-17.044 area; to the end of New York to touch the aggressive strategy entry point, if there is a star, it is expected to enter near 16.84 Empty orders, the closing is basically flat.
3. US crude oil: Accurately judge the resistance around 49.42, but the overall rebound strength is less than expected, and did not touch the conservative strategy blank entry point; the aggressive strategy can only enter more than 48.88, the highest hit 49.38, and the floating profit was 0.5 US dollars, but The target position is not touched, and the stop loss or stop loss is USD 0.5.
4, Lun copper: Accurately judged the market rose slightly, but the increase was slightly less than expected, the conservative strategy did not enter the market; aggressive strategy more than 5,565 single entry, the highest intraday hit 5625, profit of about 60 points, closing profit of 56 points.
5, the euro against the dollar: fundamental and technical analysis is basically correct, but subjectively cut off the euro will not break through the 1.1020 resistance thinking, and there is a "Trump leak" accident; Monday strategy reached the profit target of 1.1020, profit about 100 points; but the strategy near the 1.1020 short-selling entry on Tuesday, stop loss above 1.1050, loss of about 40 points; fortunately, the super-radical strategy of more than 1.1050 single entry, the highest hit 1.1097, profit of about 47 points, closing profit of about 30 points.
6. Sterling against the US dollar: Accurately judged that the pound will fall back after the data is released; Monday's radical strategy near 1.2901 reached the target of 1.2950 and the profit was about 50 points; Tuesday's aggressive strategy near 1.2955 entered the market and reached the second profit target. 1.2880, the profit is about 75 points, and the floating profit is about 90 points.
7. USD/JPY: conservative strategy wait-and-see; after the strategy is released, the aggressive strategy is about 113.40. Although it does not reach the first target, the 4-hour Bollinger Band resistance mentioned in the strategy is 113.72. The floating profit is about 30 points; then the market reverses, the parity exits or the stop loss is about 40 points; fortunately, the super-radical strategy has given the short-selling proposal, and is expected to enter the short position at 113.10, and the closing is basically flat.
8. AUD/USD: Accurately judge the market to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the 0.7402-0.7446 range; the conservative strategy is not entered, the aggressive strategy is not admitted or the short position is barely entered, depending on the person.

★For details of historical strategy, please see:
Foreign exchange trading strategy on May 8;
May 8 gold trading strategy; May 9 foreign exchange trading strategy; May 9 gold trading strategy; May 10 foreign exchange trading strategy; May 10 gold trading strategy; May 11 foreign exchange trading strategy; May 11th gold trading strategy; May 12 gold, crude oil, foreign exchange trading strategy; May 15 gold crude oil trading strategy; May 15 foreign exchange trading strategy May 16 gold trading strategy; May 16 foreign exchange trading strategy.

Due to the website update, the current policy version of May 16 cannot display all the content properly, and can be viewed with the mobile app.

Special reminder: In fact, investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time should be based on wait and see, patiently waiting for the best opportunity to shoot, avoid frequent trading is recognized as one of the winning magic. Don't try to catch all the volatility, and don't expect to judge every market correctly.

★The following is the short-term trading strategy of the euro against the US dollar on May 17.

Analysis: Washington’s political farce involving Trump seems to be suppressing the preference for the US dollar, but the US dollar has also encountered technical selling, while the US housing market data is not performing well, the Eurozone data is relatively optimistic, and the various risks in Europe are also Gradually dissipated, helping the euro to break the important resistance near 1.1022, the euro's new round of rising seems to have restarted.

From the weekly point of view, the moving averages are long, the MACD fast line wears the zero axis, and the slow line also has the tendency to wear the zero axis. There is no obvious deviation. Although the KDJ indicator enters the overbought area, it has not yet turned heads. Under the signs, the long-term trend of the euro is expected to continue to rise; however, the current exchange rate has encountered some resistance near the 61.8% retracement of the decline from May 2016 to January 2017, only standing above the position. Confirming the long-term trend of the euro, the two-week weekly line can give an answer. Further resistance above is at 1.1299 and 1.1375, and the 5-week moving average is near 1.0991.

(EUR/USD weekly chart)
From the daily view, MACD, KDJ and the moving average re-formed into a golden fork, the euro market turned to optimism again, the upside momentum was strong, and the above resistance was near the high of 1.1141 on November 14, 2016; however, MACD appeared “top divergence” Signal, the exchange rate deviates too far from the moving average, and the short-term still needs to be wary of the bearish counterattack.

(EUR/USD daily chart)
Resistance: 1.1140; 1.1200; 1.1234; 1.1300; 1.1365;
Support: 1.1100; 1.1065; 1.1020; 1.0980; 1.0950.
Huitong's short-term trading strategy : the exchange rate has risen sharply, and the risk of fluctuations has also increased. The conservative strategy should wait and see.
Aggressive strategy: After the exchange rate has risen sharply, the risk of chasing has increased, and the topping is also a high risk. It is recommended to wait and see to determine new resistance and support before proceeding. Or the exchange rate back to step 1.1020, you can lay out short-term multiple orders, stop loss below 1.0980, target 1.1130; near 1.1200.
Ultra-aggressive strategy: It can be placed in the important resistance level 1.1130-1.1140 area or the current price 1.1116 layout empty order, stop loss above 1.1160, the target overnight market preliminary retracement level near 1.1065. There are more than one layout near 1.1065, which can be added once around 1.1020, with a stop loss below 1.0980 and a target of 1.1140 and 1.1200.

Attachment: May 17 gold and silver trading strategy; May 17 crude oil trading strategy; May 17 copper trading strategy.

PS1: Readers who like the monk strategy can like it in the comment area, and can also make some suggestions. The small series will refer to the comprehensive reference, which will be partially answered at 17:30-20:30 on the same day; because the strategy contains too many price points, individual editing errors And for the inadequacies, please bear with me.

PS2: This strategy is biased towards short-term and intraday trading. For those who have not touched the profit target overnight, if the investor is sure, he will continue to hold it, and the profit or loss will be fine-tuned or unchanged. If he is not sure, he will directly close the position.

(The views in this article are for reference only, please refer to the actual data for actual transactions.) For more economic data, please refer to [Financial Calendar].

Fluctuations in financial market movements before and after data release can be found in Huitong.com: Huitong Newsletter - to bring you the most detailed financial market information)

[Careful Statement] Huitong.com maintains neutrality in the statements and opinions of the text, and does not provide any express or implied warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content contained. Customers should be aware of all the risks associated with the trading of foreign exchange precious metals and bear full responsibility.

The content copyright belongs to the Huitong Finance brand. Please reprint this article to indicate: "The article is from Huitong.com". Offenders!

Keywords: