February 20th Financial Breakfast: Focus on Greece's rescue assessment during the North American holiday week on Monday

Huitong.com February 20th - During the week of February 20th - February 27th, the market will focus on the minutes of the Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia's February monetary policy meeting. At the same time, it also includes a series of heavy data such as France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in February. And the Euro Group’s assessment of the Greek bailout, the US Vice President Peng Si’s press conference, and the speech of Philadelphia Fed President Huck.

[This week's market hotspots and important indicators reminder]

Monday (February 20th): US President's Day (Washington's Birthday), the New York Stock Exchange closed for one day, CME's precious metals, US crude oil and foreign exchange contracts traded earlier at 02:00 in Beijing time on Tuesday (February 21) Close. President of the European Council Tusk US Vice President Peng Si attended the press conference. Euro Group's assessment of Greece's bailout.

Tuesday (February 21): France, Germany, the euro zone, the United States February Markit manufacturing PMI initial value. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced the minutes of the February monetary policy meeting.

Wednesday (February 22nd): EIA data is released one day due to the delay in the President's Day holiday; the UK's fourth-quarter GDP annual rate correction, the euro zone's January seasonally unchanged CPI annual rate. The chairman of the Philadelphia Fed, the 2017 FOMC voting committee, Patrick Harker spoke.

Thursday (February 23): API crude oil inventory data, Germany's fourth quarter quarterly adjusted GDP quarterly rate. Summary of the Federal Reserve’s February monetary policy meeting.

Friday (February 24): US EIA crude oil inventories changes, refined oil inventories, gasoline inventories, US new home sales, Baker Hughes crude drilling data for the week ended Feb. 17. The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a regular press conference.

Monday opening market:

This week, the market opened smoothly and the overall volatility was limited. As of press time, the euro against the US dollar reported 1.0623, up 0.09%; the dollar against the yen reported 112.91, up 0.06%; the pound against the US dollar 1.2429, up 0.15%.

Spot gold rose $1.24 or 0.1% to $1235.83 per ounce; spot silver rose $0.1 or 0.06% to $18.01 per ounce.

US WTI crude oil continuous contract reported 53.46 US dollars / barrel, a small increase of 0.11%; Brent crude oil continuous contract reported 55.82 US dollars / barrel, slightly up 0.02%.

[Reviewed last week]

Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen’s “Valentine Day confession”, her hints on accelerating the pace of interest rate hikes and optimistic economic data, pushed the dollar to a three-week high. But after all, the timing of the Fed’s next rate hike is still uncertain, and the expectation of raising interest rates will cool down. Therefore, in the case that the US dollar has risen on the 11th, the profit-taking led the dollar to turn down and hit more than Thursday. The biggest one-day drop in two weeks.

The Europeans were overshadowed by the gloom of the multi-national elections, and the backdrop of the dollar’s ​​gains at the beginning of the week, put the euro under pressure. The minutes of the ECB meeting last week also showed that the ECB had no intention of reducing stimulus measures in the face of high political uncertainty. In addition, the Greek stalemate has once again debuted, and negotiations with creditors have been delayed for a long time, becoming another source of risk. Only the dollar has since fallen back, finally bringing a turn to the euro.

Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the OECD oil stocks fell. In addition, OPEC crude oil monthly report showed that crude oil production decreased in January, and the member exchange rate of member production reduction reached 93%.

[List of major global markets]

Last week, the overall market volatility was not very large, but the US stock market once again hit record highs, which made investors shocked. Trump's tax reform speech continued to provide confidence to the market, while the US CPI and other data performed extremely brilliantly, and Fed Chair Yellen et al. A number of Fed officials all issued hawkish remarks, which once pushed up the interest rate hike in March. However, the US dollar fell back and the gold price bottomed out. The weekly line recorded a cross star, and the crude oil market continued to fluctuate. Whether we can balance the reduction of production can solve the problem of oversupply.

★Stock market

1. The Shanghai Composite Index closed lower on Friday, breaking away from the intraday high of more than two months. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3202.08 points, down 27.54 points or 0.85%; the index rose 0.17% for the whole week. Last Friday, A shares traded 248.3 billion yuan, last Thursday (February 16) was 226.3 billion yuan.

2. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.3% to 24033.74 points on Friday; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.9% to 10360.13 points; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.9% this week, and the Hong Kong stock market turnover rose to August 25, 2015. The highest since the week. As the capital inflows in the Mainland of China slowed down and the main index of Hong Kong stocks closed at an 18-month high, investors made a profit.

3. European stock markets closed flat on Friday, and the weekly line rose for the second consecutive week. Unilever was boosted by mergers and acquisitions, boosting personal and household goods stocks, but bank stocks and resource stocks fell. The Stoxx 600 index rose by 12 points, with a percentage increase of almost zero, and the close was nearing the 13-month high hit on Wednesday.

4. Last week, the US stock market hit a record high; the three major US stock indexes continued their previous gains, and the weekly line recorded four consecutive years. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6%, standing above the 20,000 mark for two consecutive weeks. It once refreshed the historical high to 20,639.83 points; the main reason is that Trump's tax reform speech has increased market confidence, and the company's annual report is optimistic.

★ futures

1. Last week, spot gold hit a two-week low to $1216/oz, and the highest touched $1,438.88 per ounce, approaching a three-month high, closing at $1234.67 per ounce, and the weekly line edged up by 0.09%.

2. Last week, the international oil price continued to fluctuate. The overall volatility of US crude oil was less than US$2, the highest hit US$53.95/ton, the lowest hit US$52.68/barrel, the amplitude was only 2.36%, and the oil oil fluctuated between US$55.10 and US$56.79.

3. Most of London's basic metals fell. LME copper closed down 0.7% at $5,960/ton. LME nickel closed down 0.2% to $11050/ton. LME aluminum fell 0.9% to $1,880/ton. LME zinc closed down 1.7% to $2810/ton. LME lead closed down 1.1% at $2,252/ton. LME tin futures closed up 0.3% at $19,725/ton.

4. Last week, black goods in the domestic futures market ushered in the “roller coaster” market. The rebar 1705 contract once rose more than 2.8%, closing down 0.91%. After a similar trend, the Hot Roll 1705 contract rose by 2.35% to close at 1.22%, the iron ore 1705 contract rose by about 2.5% to close at 2.42%, and the coke 1705 contract rose by 5.44% to close at 0.24. %. However, Zhengzhou Coal 1705 and Coking Coal 1705 are still relatively strong, closing at 2.68% and 1.37%.

★ Bond

1. US Treasury prices rose last Friday, as concerns over the French presidential election and weak UK economic data increased their willingness to hedge, hitting the stock market and boosting demand for safe-haven US debt. US 10-year US Treasury prices rose 8/32 in late trading, yielding 2.42%, down from 2.45% in late Thursday. Earlier yields hit a low of 2.40% since February 10.

2. In the euro zone bond market, Italy's national yield rose slightly on Friday, but the weekly line fell for the first time in five weeks. Italian 10-year bond yields rose slightly by 3 basis points to 2.18% last Friday, and fell by about 16 basis points last Thursday to a near three-week low of 2.13%.

★Forex

1. Last week, the closing price of RMB against the US dollar at 16:30 was 6.8709, down 142 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity of the yuan against the US dollar rose more than 170 points to a three-week high of 6.8456.

2. Last week, the US dollar index rallied. The highest level had a month high of 101.77, but the lowest hit 100.42. It remained above the 100-integer mark. It closed at 100.93, and the weekly line rose slightly by 0.16%. The US bond yield was slightly small. The fall in the high post has dragged down the dollar, and the market seems to think that Trump’s trade policy does not support the dollar’s ​​rise, and Trump has always criticized that the dollar’s ​​excessive strength is not good for the US economy.

3. On Sunday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel responded to US President Trump’s remarks that the “valuation problem” of the euro’s existence is beyond her control. Although the euro exchange rate helps Germany to achieve a trade surplus, this is due to the European Central Bank. Due to the need to develop monetary policy.

[International Finance News]

1. The International Monetary Fund said in a statement on Sunday that Mongolia received a total of about $5.5 billion in aid packages, of which the People’s Bank of China will renew 15 billion yuan (about 2.2 billion US dollars) with the Mongolian Central Bank. The local currency swap agreement is valid for at least three years.

2. US Secretary of Homeland Security Kelly said at a meeting of the Munich Security Ministry on Sunday that President Trump plans to introduce a new decree on immigration control. The new politic order will be more lenient than the previous ban, for example, if it holds a legitimate US Foreigners with green cards and passports have already boarded flights to the United States and they will be allowed entry.

3. U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin stressed with the Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, the director of the Chinese Finance Office Liu He and the finance minister Xiao Jietong that they are looking forward to cultivating strong US-China relations during the term of office and emphasizing the future realization. The importance of balancing US-China economic and trade relations will be devoted to close cooperation on economic, financial, trade and investment issues in bilateral and multilateral dialogues.

4. US Vice President Burns said on Saturday that Trump promised to stand with the EU, the United States will be the EU's largest ally; the United States' commitment to the transatlantic 600558, the stock alliance will not change; the United States will also Make sure that Iran never gets nuclear weapons.

5. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Saturday that it should strengthen cooperation with Russia in combating Islamic terrorists and will do its utmost to make NATO's military expenditures account for 2% of GDP. She also believes that the EU has the responsibility to receive refugees.

6. Moody's maintains Russia's rating and its outlook is adjusted from negative to stable. Moody's said that Russia is recovering from the recession in the past two years. In the absence of structural reforms, Russia's potential growth rate is still expected to be 1.5%-2%.

7. "The stock god" Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway company's largest jewelry group Richline plans to launch the smart jewelry brand Ela in April, which is the first time the world's mainstream jewelry group has announced its entry into the field.

8. US-based investment bank Morgan Stanley made a forecast on the main currency pair next week, arguing that the US dollar, Swiss franc and New Zealand dollar are neutral, bearish on the euro, the yen, the pound, and the Australian dollar.

9. The Wall Street Journal: A draft memorandum from the US Department of Homeland Security shows that the government is considering filing a lawsuit against parents who help illegal children.

10. The EU will legislate to distinguish between robots and natural persons. The European Parliament has formally submitted a motion to the Commission to establish a comprehensive set of laws to define the responsibilities and ethical issues brought about by "artificial intelligence."

[Domestic financial news]

★ domestic macro

1. The People's Bank of China released the implementation report on China's monetary policy for the fourth quarter of 2016 last week. The report pointed out that the central bank will implement a sound and neutral monetary policy in the next stage, better balance the relationship between stable growth, structural adjustment, anti-foam and anti-risk, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for supply-side institutional reform.

2. The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced new restrictions on refinancing on Friday, stipulating the number and frequency of new shares that listed companies can issue. The CSRC stated that the number of shares issued through private placement cannot exceed 20% of the company's total shares. Non-financial companies seeking to issue shares should not have a large long-term financial investment (such as trading assets or lending funds) balance, but did not provide more details.

3. The announcement on the website of China Financial Futures Exchange on Thursday showed that CICC decided to adjust the relevant trading arrangements from February 17, 2017. First, the regulatory standards for excessive trading behavior of stock index futures were adjusted from the original 10 hands to 20 lots; the second is the CSI 300, the SSE 50 stock index futures non-hedging transaction margin adjustment is 20%, the CSI 500 stock index futures non-hedging transaction margin adjustment is 30%; the third is the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, SSE 50, The CSI 500 stock index futures trading fee is adjusted to 9.2 million of the transaction amount.

4. The announcement of the website of the Ministry of Commerce of China on Saturday showed that in order to implement the UN Security Council resolution, China will suspend the import of North Korean origin coal from February 19. This includes coal that has been accepted by the customs but has not yet been cleared.

★ domestic stock market

1. According to the China Times, as of February 16, a total of 2,339 companies in the two cities issued 2016 annual performance forecasts, accounting for nearly 80% of listed companies achieving profitability in 2016, and 471 listed companies in advance. In the petrochemical oil service 600871, the stock bar and the CNOOC service 601808, the stock loss amount temporarily ranked first and second, respectively, the estimated loss of 16.08 billion yuan and 11.7 billion yuan.

2. According to the announcement of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, there will be 10 new shares scheduled for online purchase in the following week (February 20 to February 24), but according to the forecast price of Guoan Junan, there are 4 new shares. The issue price-earnings ratio exceeds the industry price-earnings ratio and there is a possibility of delayed issuance. In addition, the Securities and Futures Commission issued 12 IPO approvals on February 17, in which three companies, such as Mu Gaodi, Zhizhen Daohua and Piano, were directly priced and may be purchased online in the next week. As a result, the number of new shares issued may be seven.

3. Domestic stock market events: February 22-24, 2017 (fourth) International Fertilizer Industry Chain Summit, related topics: agricultural modernization. February 23-24, 2017 14th TFC Global Pan Games Conference and Smart Entertainment Exhibition, related topics: e-sports. February 23, 2017 China Commercial UAV Conference, related topics: drones. February 25-26, 2017 Sponge City Construction and Development Forum, related topic: Sponge City. From February 26th to 28th, the coking industry pollution control and coke dry quenching seminar and new technology and new product promotion meeting, related topics: governance and limited production.

4. According to Wind data statistics, the size of the restricted shares of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped sharply next week, with a total of 2.956 billion shares, calculated at Friday's closing price, with a market value of 38.789 billion yuan, and only 5 companies have lifted the ban. 100 million shares.

★ domestic property market

1. According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, as of February 16, 25 companies have acquired more than 2 billion yuan, totaling 195.613 billion yuan; 12 of them have landed more than 5 billion; because the land supply in the Spring Festival is reduced, so It is expected that the follow-up housing enterprises will still increase the amount of land acquisition. After the sales area and the sales amount are the largest in the harvest history in 2016, the enthusiasm of the housing enterprises to replenish the land is obviously high. Even under the influence of regulation and control, the land supplied by the localities still has no flow label. Such as the obvious cooling phenomenon.

In February and February, the property market continued to show a “light” trend in January, and it is expected that the transaction will continue to be sluggish in the short term. According to data from the Kerry Research Center, in January 2017, Beijing's transactions were down 41.78%, Guangzhou's transactions were down 44.25%, and Shenzhen's transactions were down 20.92%. Looking at the whole country, in January, the newly built houses in 30 major cities signed 133,000 sets, 14.18 million square meters, down 27.3% year-on-year, and down 37% from the previous month.

(Editor: Xu Limei HT001)