BSFX Boss Financial: Non-agricultural turning point this Wednesday or help down the dollar

Saying goodbye to the "non-agricultural storm" last weekend, the financial market will usher in a new week. For the US dollar, there will be three major events this week worthy of attention. In terms of economic data, the two heavyweight indicators of US CPI and retail sales will be released. Given their consistent huge influence, the US dollar may fluctuate greatly after the data is released. In addition, the much-watched minutes of the Fed meeting will be released, which will have an important impact on the interest rate hike expectations at the end of the year, which in turn will drive the dollar.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor last Friday, due to Hurricane Harvey and Irma, the displaced workers were temporarily unemployed and postponed recruitment activities. In September, non-agricultural employment decreased by 33,000, far less than the expected increase of 80,000. The number of non-agricultural employment has fallen for the first time since 2010.

The Federal Reserve will announce the minutes of the last meeting on Wednesday, which may constitute important guidelines for the interest rate hike at the end of the year. At the September meeting, the Fed announced that it began to cut its balance sheet, in line with popular expectations. They will also keep the 2017 (again rate hike) and 2018 rate hike expectations (three rate hikes) unchanged. Despite the slowdown in inflation, the enthusiasm for raising interest rates continues. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen called the inflationary downturn a "mystery."

In addition to the minutes of the meeting, there will be a large number of Fed officials speaking, including Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Minneapolis Minneapolis Fed President Kashkali, Chicago Fed President Evans, San Francisco Fed President William James, Fed Governor Powell, Fed Governor Brainard and so on.

Brainard is a permanent member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and her opinion is consistent with most people. She can provide valuable insights into the latest employment reports and, more importantly, comment on the rate hike in December. Powell is also a Fed governor, and he rarely discusses monetary policy. Still, since he is one of the Fed presidents, his speech is now more important. In his previous speech, Powell did not provide insights on interest rates.

This Friday, the financial market will usher in two major economic data this week – US CPI inflation and retail sales data. Both data are scheduled to be released at 20:30 on Friday, Beijing time.

BSFX Boss financial analysts believe that after the impact of non-agricultural activities last week, this week is relatively calm, trading on a relatively light Monday, the transaction is mainly light warehouse, gradually recover from the holiday mentality, to meet trading opportunities on Wednesday and Friday.

List of important speeches, holiday holidays and risk events this week

Monday: Due to the impact of the holiday, the US bond market will be closed, API and EIA crude oil inventory data will be postponed until Thursday, but the US stock market and CME's precious metals, crude oil and foreign exchange contracts will be traded normally; in addition, Toronto Stock Exchange, Seoul, South Korea The stock exchange, the Tokyo Stock Exchange of Japan, and the Taiwan Stock Exchange of China also closed for holidays;

Tuesday: 08:00 2017 FOMC Ticket Committee, Dallas Fed President Kaplan participated in the Q&A session of the Stanford University Center for Economic Policy Research, 22:00 2017 FOMC Ticket Committee, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkali gave a speech , the Taiwan Stock Exchange is closed;

Wednesday: It is estimated that Beijing time 18-20 points OPEC announced monthly crude oil market report, 19:15 2017 FOMC voting committee Evans participated in the discussion in Zurich, Switzerland.

Thursday: 00:00 EIA announces monthly short-term energy outlook report, 02:00 Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting, 16:00 IEA announced monthly crude oil market report, 18:30 Federal Reserve Governor Powell gave a keynote speech on emerging markets, 22 :30 European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics;

Friday: 22:25 2017 FOMC Ticket Committee, Chicago Fed President Evans gave a speech on economic and monetary policy, 23:30 2017 FOMC Ticket Committee, Dallas Fed President Kaplan attended the CFA Institution's 2017 Fixed Income Management Conference activity.

List of important data this week

Monday: 09:45 China's September financial services PMI, 14:00 Germany August seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate, 14:30 French September BOF business confidence index, 16:00 China September foreign exchange reserves, 16: 30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for October;

Tuesday: 07:50 Japan August trade account, 13:45 Switzerland's September seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, 14:00 Germany's August quarterly reconciliation and seasonal adjustment of the current account, 14:45 French August industrial output monthly rate, 16: 30 UK August industrial output and manufacturing output monthly rate, seasonally adjusted commodity trade account, 18:00 US September NFIB Small Business Confidence Index;

Thursday: 04:30 US to October 6 week API crude oil inventories, 14:45 France September CPI monthly rate, 17:00 euro zone August industrial output monthly rate, 20:30 US initial jobless claims , US September PPI monthly rate, 22:30 US to October 6th week EIA natural gas inventory, 23:00 US to October 6 week EIA crude oil inventories;

Friday: 10:00 China September trade account, 10:50 China September trade account in US dollars, 14:00 Germany September CPI monthly rate final value, 20:30 US September seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, the United States 9 Monthly retail sales monthly rate, 22:00 US October University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value, US August commercial inventory monthly rate;

Saturday: 01:00 Total number of oil wells in the US to October 13th; (no important data on Wednesday).

【布油】

Crude oil began to collapse in the European trading session yesterday, and the trend continues to maintain the central shock. The follow-up can no longer achieve a new high and maintain the downward trend since the 58.88. Intraday trading continued to be short on rallies, with a stop loss setting of 56.74.

【gold】

After the gold hit a new low of 1260 yesterday, the strength has weakened. Today's goal is to break through the central high point of 1282.30. The intraday trading will continue to be bargain-hunting, and the stop loss will be set at 1275. Only when it falls below this place again, the big level can appear. The callback trend, but for now, it’s just a callback.

[US/Swiss]

After the US dollar hit a new high of 0.9836 yesterday, the strength of the increase was exhausted. The intraday trading was short and the stop loss was set at 0.9836.

[Europe/US]

After the euro hit a new low of 1.1667, it does not rule out the possibility of bottoming. Now the focus is on whether it can break through the 1.1786 central high point. The intraday trading is temporarily low and the stop loss is set at 1.1684, while the big level wants to bottom. Success, first break through the high point of 1.1786

[Pound / US]

Although the pound has rebounded, it still does not see the signal of bottoming. Given that the gold euro is expected to bottom out, it is not excluded that the pound will follow, and the intraday trading can only be done on dips, with a stop loss setting of 1.3025.

[US/Japan]

After the US and Japan also hit a new high of 113.43, the strength of the rise began to fail, and all the way down to 112.31, the intraday trading continued to ralli short, the stop loss set 113.07

The above is only a personal opinion, it is recommended to operate in a light warehouse, for reference only. Investment is risky and requires caution when entering the market. BSFX Boss Financial will not be liable for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may result from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)